12/24/2022 0 Comments Utube joe more and moreThis warm bubble of air stays with us mostly on Saturday before another cold front moves through and we dip back into seasonable air again on Sunday.ĭownslope warming, especially in the fall can really pop the temperatures. So I think on Friday, despite the colder start…mid 20s…we pop well into the 50s in the afternoon…with some upside. Those are 20-30 knot winds…that should get the surface winds going Neither I think is an issue for Friday…because look at the winds at 3,000 feet in the afternoon with quite a bit of sunshine expected. Meteorologists have a tendency to underestimate the potential warmth of these set-ups…and sometimes it doesn’t happen at the surface IF we have an issue with a lack of wind…or too many clouds. That’s +11C air here…around 52° a few thousand feet up…mix that to the ground and we get near 60° temperatures at the surface. That is a nice shot of colder air with some real chilly air towards IA and northwards.ĭon’t get used to that though because about 30 hours later…look at where we go later Friday afternoon. Wednesday afternoon at around 3,000 feet Thursday at 9AM at 3,000 feet +5 is around 42☏ +10 is close to 50☏ whereas 0° is 32☏ and -10 is close to 18☏ at that level. You can see that clearly when going up a few thousand feet into the atmosphere. The main thing though is the arrival of the colder weather. Maybe a few hundredths of an inch along and south and east of I-35. Here is the higher res version…again not too exciting. This isn’t an exciting look from this mornings NAM model data. There may be some out there…light stuff…a few hundredths of an inch in the Metro…but the better chances are towards the Lakes region and southwards towards the I-44 corridor. As I wrote in detail yesterday this front will create some rain but odds favor most of the rain to remain south of KC. Nothing unusual but another decently strong cold front will be arriving into the Plains later tomorrow and moving through. Over the next 48 hours though we will see a colder change. Doesn’t mean it won’t happen though…again the models struggle with these rapid fire changes. Yesterday there was some consensus that we could see a decent amount (with perspective) of late November and early December warmth…the overnight data isn’t as convincing on that prospect. Typically these types of changes are not handled well by model data and we’re seeing that. It will change…and the change will come into December I’m sure. So the chilly air comes southwards…but goes over that bare ground…it then has an easier way of moderating so the “chill” is sort of modified and when the air isn’t being sourced from the arctic…it lacks the punch of the true cold weather.Īgain though it’s not that unusual for that to be happening. One look to the north of here…where the colder air masses come from show a lot of bare ground real estate. Another issue is a lack of snow cover in most of the country. ![]() We’re sort of struggling to tap into any real cold air at this point too so whatever cool to cold air masses move into the region…they are quickly tempered and we start to warm back up again. ![]() ![]() These ups and downs aren’t too surprising really in such a fast flow of the atmosphere. Thursday: Sunny and chilly with highs closer to the lower 40s Tomorrow: Increasing clouds with developing lighter rain chances later in the day. Tonight: Fair and milder with breezy conditions developing. Today: Sunny and mild with gusty south winds to 25 MPH+. The air above us in in the low to mid 50s this morning…just about 2,000 feet up…and once the sunshine and the wind “mixes” up the lower levels of the atmosphere we should get to the mid 60s or so later today.Ĭolder weather moves back in later tomorrow night…and Thanksgiving is cold again…but there will be another rapid warm-up heading to the weekend for about 48 hours before we drop again on Sunday. Today though will feel more like early spring…increasing winds…abundant sunshine and rapidly warming temperatures in the afternoon. The precise timing of this though is not clear, nor will it be for awhile…but there are signs at least. They’re doing a miserable job with it but at some point into the 1st 10 days of December we should see a more pronounced winter shot of weather. You can see the models wayyyyy down the road trying to switch to a rather wintry pattern…whether that means snow or not remains to be seen but you can see them trying to figure out things.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |